MYSTEEL: China's coking coal market to see mild recovery in 2026 - alcircle

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Mysteel's 2026 report indicates a mild recovery in China's coking coal market, with prices expected to range between Yuan 1,400-1,450 per tonne, driven by complex policy interactions and constrained by structural market overcapacity.

Market Context: China's Coking Coal Landscape

The Chinese coking coal market represents a critical intersection of industrial policy, infrastructure development, and global commodity dynamics. Mysteel's comprehensive annual report provides nuanced insights into the anticipated market trajectory for 2026, revealing a complex interplay of supportive and restrictive policy mechanisms.

Price Projection Methodology

Analysts have developed a granular pricing model focusing on Anze low-sulfur primary coking coal from Shanxi province. The projected price range of Yuan 1,400-1,450 (approximately USD 201-208) per tonne represents a modest 2% year-on-year increase, with potential peak pricing reaching Yuan 1,800 per tonne.

Quarterly Market Segmentation

• Q1 2026: Characterized by continued market pressure and sluggish demand

• Q2 2026: Anticipated modest rebound driven by construction sector resumption

• H2 2026: Expected frequent volatility from mixed policy interventions

Structural Market Constraints

Despite potential recovery signals, significant structural constraints persist. Overcapacity remains a fundamental challenge, preventing sustained price increases. The market's ability to achieve meaningful price appreciation is fundamentally limited by existing production capabilities and uncertain demand elasticity.

🧭 Bench Energy Expert View

Market Interpretation: The 2026 coking coal market represents a delicate balancing act between policy-driven interventions and underlying structural market realities. Our analysis suggests that while short-term price movements will be notable, long-term market transformation remains constrained by systemic overcapacity.

• Price Dynamics: Expect nuanced, policy-responsive pricing with limited sustained upward momentum

• Regional Impacts: Shanxi province will remain the primary pricing benchmark, with potential spillover effects into Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi regions

• Trading Strategies: Prioritize agile, short-cycle trading approaches over long-term speculative positions

• Risk Mitigation: Closely monitor infrastructure investment rates and steel production indicators as leading market signals

Conclusion: The 2026 coking coal market demands sophisticated, data-driven approach, recognizing both cyclical opportunities and structural limitations.