Global Coal Markets: China's Imports, India's Growth, and Price Dynamics in 2026

The global coal market is experiencing complex dynamics in early 2026, characterized by shifting import patterns, evolving energy strategies, and nuanced price movements across key economies.

China's Recalibrating Coal Strategy

According to the Hellenic Shipping News, China has adjusted its coal import forecast downward to 465 million tons for 2026, a reduction from previous projections. Despite this adjustment, coal prices have remained robust, hovering above $115 per ton. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association anticipates domestic production will reach 4.86 billion tons, potentially offsetting reduced imports.

Price Dynamics and Market Signals

Trading Economics reports that coking coal prices rose to $244.50 per ton on February 10, 2026 — a 4.71% daily increase and a substantial 28.01% year-on-year growth. The market anticipates prices to stabilize around $236.84 by quarter's end, with potential reaching $251.15 in 12 months.

India's Long-Term Energy Outlook

In a significant policy development, Niti Aayog's roadmap reveals India's complex energy transition. The country estimates $22.7 trillion will be required to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070, with coal consumption expected to continue rising until 2047. Concurrently, thermal power project construction continues, with 39,545 MW currently under development.

Bench Energy View

The coal market in 2026 demonstrates resilience and complexity. While import forecasts are being adjusted and prices remain volatile, long-term energy strategies in major economies like China and India suggest continued significance of coal in the global energy mix.

Sources

• Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

• SMM

• The Economic Times

• Trading Economics

• The Economic Times