June 13, 2026
Executive Summary: This Week in Dry Bulk
The dry bulk complex is defined by a sharp divergence this week. The thermal coal market is decisively bullish, driven by significant supply disruptions from Indonesia that have pushed key Asian benchmarks to their highest levels since 2024. In contrast, the iron ore market is caught between supportive Chinese economic data and the bearish weight of high port inventories, holding prices in a narrow range. Freight rates are mixed, with Capesize vessels seeing a pullback while smaller segments find regional support. The fertilizer market remains under pressure, with urea prices falling sharply over the past month.
- Coal (Bullish): Indonesian export rule changes are causing shipment delays, tightening the market and sending Australian Newcastle futures to US$151 per ton. This supply shock is amplified by rising seasonal demand for power generation.
- Iron Ore (Neutral): Prices are holding steady around $101.60/ton, supported by positive Chinese industrial data but capped by high port-side inventories and an uncertain steel demand outlook.
- Freight (Neutral/Mixed): Capesize rates softened after recent highs, with the TCE Cont/Far East rate falling to $70,389. Panamax markets are split between a firming Atlantic and a weakening Pacific, while Supramax rates remain positive.
- Fertilizer (Bearish): Urea prices fell to $400/ton, marking a nearly 29% decline over the past month, though prices remain up year-on-year.
Coal: Indonesian Supply Shock Drives Bullish Breakout
The thermal coal market is experiencing a significant supply-side shock. New export rules implemented in Indonesia in June have created confusion and are delaying shipments from the world's largest exporter, according to market reports. This disruption has tightened the seaborne market, sending prices surging. Australian Newcastle coal futures for June jumped to US$151 per ton on June 8, the highest level for a front-month contract since May 2024. The Newcastle forward curve has flipped into backwardation, signaling acute near-term supply tightness.
The price action reflects a market scrambling for alternative supply. Thermal coal futures climbed above $150 per ton, a peak not seen since September 2023, with traders attributing the strength directly to the Indonesian export controls and stronger seasonal demand from summer heat boosting electricity consumption. As of June 12, the price settled at $148.90 per ton, up 41.47% year-on-year despite a minor daily dip.
This administrative bottleneck exacerbates an already softer supply picture. Prior to the new rules, Indonesia's coal exports had already declined for four consecutive months. Cumulative shipments for January-April reached 151.1 million tons, a 6.9% year-on-year decrease. Exports to key buyers China and India were down 4.3% and 24% year-on-year in April, respectively. The price for Indonesian GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal was assessed at $66.30/t FOB Kalimantan on June 5, its highest point since May 2023, a level that was already expected to dampen some demand before the latest export delays.
Metallurgical Coal Follows Suit
The coking coal market is also demonstrating underlying strength. Prices stood at $244 per metric ton on June 12. While this represents a minor daily dip, the price is up 2.95% over the past month and a substantial 37.85% compared to the same period last year, reflecting solid demand from the steel sector.
Iron Ore: Range-Bound Between Data and Inventories
The iron ore market is walking a tightrope, with prices holding stable but lacking clear directional conviction. The benchmark Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China (TSI) Swap Futures contract hovered around $101.60 per ton as of June 12, showing only marginal daily movement.
Support for the market emerged mid-week from positive Chinese economic indicators. China's consumer inflation held steady in May while producer prices rose faster than expected, suggesting improving conditions in some industrial sectors. This was complemented by a month-on-month increase in China's steel exports and a decline in iron ore imports in May, which helped lift futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange.
However, significant headwinds are capping any potential rally. High iron ore inventories at Chinese ports and a seasonal slowdown in steel consumption continue to create uncertainty for near-term demand. This fundamental picture keeps the market in a state of equilibrium, with prices struggling to break out in either direction. The stability is confirmed by futures data showing the current contract price closing at $101.60, a minor $0.10 increase from the previous day on a volume of 360 lots.
Grains and Fertilizers
Grains
No significant market-moving data for the grain complex was available in this week's source inputs. Analysis of this segment will resume when relevant information is provided.
Fertilizers (Urea)
The urea market is under significant downward pressure. Prices fell to $400 per metric ton on June 12, marking a substantial 28.89% decline over the past month. This sharp drop contrasts with the year-on-year performance, where prices remain 4.85% higher. According to Trading Economics models, urea is forecast to trade at $402.63 by the end of this quarter, with a 12-month projection of $458.64, suggesting a potential recovery from the current lows. The market is being influenced by interest rates affecting working capital and inflation in production costs.
Freight: A Divided Market
The dry bulk freight market presented a mixed picture as of June 10. The Capesize segment, which had seen recent strength, experienced a softer week. The benchmark TCE Cont/Far East rate fell by $1,194 to $70,389, and the overall Capesize 180' rate declined by $1,060 to $28,820. The Fearnleys Weekly Report suggests the Capesize market faces further downward pressure.
The mid-sized vessel segments were divided by basin:
- Panamax: The Atlantic basin is gradually improving, with the Transatlantic RV rate up $315 to $17,515. The Pacific, however, is weakening, with the Panamax 75' rate down $250 to $18,750.
- Supramax: This segment maintained a positive tone, supported by stronger inquiry in the Atlantic and improving activity across Asia. The Supramax 58' rate increased by $400 to $18,000.
- Handysize: Rates remained stable at $13,500.
What Traders Should Watch Next Week
Bench Energy View
The Bench Energy Desk holds a bullish view on the thermal coal market for the immediate term, directly tied to the unresolved Indonesian export situation. This administrative hurdle is a potent, if temporary, supply shock that overrides other fundamental factors. The iron ore market is neutral; it is range-bound and lacks a catalyst to break out, with bearish inventory levels effectively neutralizing positive macroeconomic signals from China. The risk to our coal view is a sudden policy reversal or clarification from Jakarta that normalizes export flows faster than the market currently anticipates, which would trigger a sharp price correction.